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Slimycrow... check the previous flaffle threads where this has occurred. There are always the first and last pages where there are not 15 posts of entrants per page. Therefore, the odds for those people would be better.

Say there are 3 pages of people posting. If there are 7 posts of rules and descriptions and stuff on the first page and then 8 posts of people entering, 15 posts of people entering on the second page, and 1 post of someone entering on the third page... The people on the second page would have a much lower chance of getting picked, the people on the first page would have a better chance, and the person on the third page would have an awesome chance.

Statistically, it actually doesn't Lower your chances of winning, nor does it increase it. If 200 people enter for one soquili, you have a 1 in 200 chance no matter if its rolled as a huge list, of if its rolled page then post.

It just means no one has to actually spend hours making a list, when the colorist running it could be working on Soquili instead, and people have a higher chance of being left out by accident.

Now, if its, say, 3 soquili, a new page should be rolled for each one, and it should NOT be "One page gets three chances".


I'm not very good at math, understandably, so if someone can prove that it reduces everyone's chance at winning compared to one roll=one pony, however its basic enough math that I think its all psychological; Instead of "BAM YOU LOSE" Its "BWHAHAHA YOU LOSE BUT 15 PEOPLE HAVE A CHANCE TO WIN", When in reality, its the same exact chance.

As the person that keeps being pointed to as an example. I will admit that for the v-day raffle I knew the chances that my post would win would be way up - if it hadn't been an event in which the won pet was gifted - I probably wouldn't have taken that post.

I agree that the odds are warped when it's page first then post - however, as long as it is listed in the rules that the rolls will be done in that way - it isn't unfair - everyone has access to that information and can choose to act upon it or not [or even not enter because of it]. While I agree that if there were less entries it would be more ideal to have a list of every entry - in a shop of this size it isn't terribly feasible.

Of course, that presumes the page with the increased odds even gets rolled [if it doesn't - the odds being better on that page won't make a difference]. And, even if a person does manage the increased odds, they arn't likely to get the better odds on future raffles - so it balances out cosmically [and if they do - it's because they made an effort to alter their odds based on knowledge everyone has access to].

To me - yes, the odds can be different, but 'unfair' is a word too often used. It isn't fair to force the artists and staff to spend hours making a list - and then have to deal with endless complaints [or being guilt-ed into making another pet] if they make an honest mistake. The difference is typically small [the valentine raffle being an exception - with a page with only one post]. Life isn't fair, out in the real world there is rarely as much equality as can be found in this shop - and the artists and staff are constantly bending over backwards to be as fair as possible and do more for the customers.

Someone brought up the CYO raffle - let me point to that as a key example of how awesome Soq, the colorists and staff are here. Everyone I know who had their name [even just once] on a plush got a FREE soq. It hurts to think that people can't see past something as small as this odds variant to the amazing of the shop staff and instead want to pile more work on their plates [because even if someone volunteers to make the list - they have to go back and check it or run the risk that someone was left off and it will be an issue].

The way to "fix" the whole "people on the first and last page have a slightly higher chance to win" is simply roll 1-15 for ANY page that's rolled. If it's an invalid post (ie, the introductory post), then roll again.

Ta Dah - list is back to being equally fair for everyone heart

That actually sounds like a decent solution.

I disagree, I think the odds are much more important... and they aren't even. Say 20 people enter:
1 on first page (1/3 odds of page getting picked x 1/1 odds of getting rolled = 1/3 odds of getting picked)
15 on second page (1/3 odds of page getting picked x 1/15 odds of getting rolled = 1/45 odds of getting picked)
4 on third page (1/3 odds of page getting picked, 1/4 odds of getting rolled = 1/12 odds of getting picked)

1/3, 1/45 and 1/12 are VERY different odds. For any given raffle, the odds for winning can be 15 times higher for certain individuals. That isn't fair at all.

Rolling for page, then rolling 1-15 regardless of how many posts were on the page would work provided that if the "winning" post was illegible, then a new page was rolled, and not a simple post on the old page.

Buuut, really, Sae's solution solves two problems at once because:
-Everyone has equal odds
-The colorists only have to roll once per winner, not counting rerolls, instead of twice per winner (page, post)

Update: The page post rolling is retired from flaffles and raffles and we are doing a list instead by asking for a volunteer at the beginning of the event to help or someone on staff could keep the list.

The only thing that will be used for page post rolling is free thread raffles where an entire thread is rolled when we have a holiday or other type of event because its faster.

Thanks all!!