Welcome to Gaia! :: View User's Journal | Gaia Journals

Neutral news: Thirty-seven items were released through the Black Friday 2k12 Sale. This total does not include items inside bundles (as they could not be purchased individually) or 'rare chance' bundle items (for the same reason).
Fourteen of those items were worth less than 1M.
Twenty-four of those items were worth less than 5M.
Three of those items were worth 10M or more.

Good news: Three items had a six month return on investment of 100% or greater.
Four items had a six month return on investment of 50% or greater.
Seven items had a six month return on investment of 20% or greater.
Ten items had a six month return on in investment of 1% or greater.

Tepid news: Four items neither gained nor lost value.

Bad news: No item that had a 20% or greater return has sold more than ten units in the last month.
Only two of the items that had a greater than 20% return have sold enough units to generate a graph in the last month.
Only one of the items that had a greater than 100% return has sold enough units to generate a graph in the last month.
None of the items that had a greater than 50% return have sold enough units in the last six months to generate a 'yearly' graph.

Much Worse news: Twenty-three items lost more than .5% in value over six months.
Twenty-two items lost more than 5% in value over six months.
Nineteen items lost 10% or more in value over six months.
Fifteen items lost 20% or more in value over six months.
Thirteen items lost 30% or more in value over six months.
Nine items lost 40% or more in value over six months.
Seven items lost more than 50% in value over six months.
Five items lost more than 60% in value over six months.
Three items lost 70% or more in value over six months.
The 'biggest loser' lost 73.3% of its value over six months and hoarding just one would have hit your wallet with a loss to the tune of 8.8M.
The item with the greatest gold value during the sale lost 71% of it's value and hoarding just one would have hit you with the largest gross loss of 10.65M.

All 'costs' are prices during the sale only not before or after.

Oisin's Blessing
Cost: 8M
3 Months: 8.4M
6 Months: 7.95M
Delta: -50k
ROI: -.6%
Notes: Oisin's was down to an easy 7M with listings as low as 6M in the pre-sale panic dumping.

Hocuspocus Hair
Cost: 7M
3 Months: 6.1M
6 Months: 6.55M
Delta: -450k
ROI: -6.4%
Notes: The price of this item actually went up during the sale. Item was subsequently re-released in Impractical Gala and dropped to 4.5M-5M before recovering.

Blade of the Night Sky
Cost: 9.8M
3 Months: 9.8M
6 Months: 7.85M
Delta: -1.95M
ROI: -19.9%
Notes: Price of item dropped from 15 to 10M as a result of the sale and has slowly dropped.

Her Raiding Majesty
Cost: 6M
3 Months: 4.5M
6 Months: 2.8M
Delta: -3.2M
ROI: -53.3%
Notes: Price of this item went up during the sale.

Jet the Kitten Star
Cost: 10M
3 Months: 6.5M
6 Months: 6M
Delta: -4M
ROI: -40%
Notes: Cost of this item dropped from 20M to 10M during the sale and has kept dropping since.

Onei the Dark Unicorn
Cost: 12M
3 Months: 4.5M
6 Months: 3.2M
Delta: -8.8M
ROI: 73.3%
Notes: Item dropped from 30M to 12M during the sale and has kept dropping since.

The Mad Hatter
Cost: 10M
3 Months: 9.8M
6 Months: 9.3M
Delta: -700k
ROI: -7%
Notes: Item dropped from 15M to 10M during the sale and has dropped slightly/ stagnated since then.

Gaia-sama
Cost: 7M
3 Months: 9M
6 Months: 10.5M
Delta: 3.5M
ROI: 50%
Notes: Item dropped from about 9M to 7M during the sale so return was mostly from price recovery. 10 units sold in the last month. Sellability is very low.

Kanoko's Dark Reflection
Cost: 3.5M
3 Months: 2.5M
6 Months: 2.15M
Delta: -1.35M
ROI: -38.6%
Notes: This item went up in price slightly during the sale and has been dropping ever since.

Pink Dragoness
Cost: 250k
3 Months: 200k
6 Months: 200k
Delta: -50k
ROI: -20%
Notes: This went up briefly possibly from AI and dropped sharply thereafter.

Nymph Adora
Cost: 150k
3 Months: 150k
6 Months: 135k
Delta: -15k
ROI: -10%
Notes: This item went up possibly for Christmas but has since dropped back down.

Rainy Day
Cost: 6.5M
3 Months: 5.6M
6 Months: 5.7M
Delta: -800k
ROI: -12.3%
Notes:

ICHI-maru-KYUU
Cost: 275k
3 Months: 260k
6 Months: 250k
Delta: -25k
ROI: -9%
Notes: Sale did not have a substantial impact on price. Price has remained stagnant regardless. Two possible failed manipulation attempts in the last three months.

Loathing Style
Cost: 15M
3 Months: 4M
6 Months: 4.35M
Delta: -10.65M
ROI: -71%
Notes: This item went up almost 10M during the sale and dropped continuously until a couple weeks ago when it recovered a few hundred thousand.

Frosted Affection
Cost: 600k
3 Months: 280k
6 Months: 190k
Delta: -410k
ROI: 68.3%
Notes: This item went up 200k during the sale and has done nothing but go down since.

Xin the Lucky Dragon
Cost: 100k
3 Months: 72k
6 Months: 101k
Delta: +1k
ROI: 1%
Notes: I think it says something that after six months this is one of the very few items to not be a giant loss.

The Dark Ringmaster
Cost:3.3M
3 Months: 3.3M
6 Months: 3.3M
Delta: 0
ROI: Stagnant
Notes:

The Gravedigger's Exorcism
Cost: 4M
3 Months: 1.9M
6 Months: 2M
Delta: -2M
ROI: -50%
Notes:

Heart x Mind
Cost: 4M
3 Months: 4.5M
6 Months: 4.8M
Delta: +800k
ROI: 20%
Notes:

Maximillian the Snowdog
Cost: 150k
3 Months: 75k
6 Months: 45k
Delta: -105k
ROI: 70%
Notes: Went up to 300k for Christmas but has since sharply declined in price.

Princess Manner
Cost: 8M
3 Months: 4M
6 Months: 4.75M
Delta: -3.25M
ROI: 40.6%
Notes: Item appears to have suffered from dumping in the third week of January. No obvious reason.

Lady Jane's Lace
Cost: 3.5M
3 Months: 1.7M
6 Months: 2M
Delta: -1.5M
ROI: -42.9%
Notes: Six sales in the last month. Very low sellability.

Dice Bunny
Cost: 2.6M
3 Months: 2.6M
6 Months: 2.3M
Delta: -300k
ROI: 11.5%
Notes:

Jekyll's Morality
Cost: 3.5M
3 Months: 3.1M
6 Months: 3.7M
Delta: +200k
ROI: 6%
Notes: Price recovery has taken place only in the last month.

Foxy Flag Gal
Cost: 110k
3 Months: 110k
6 Months: 110k
Delta: 0
ROI: Stagnant
Notes: Sale had no significant effect on price at all either positive or negative.

Lady Chimes
Cost: 3.8M
3 Months: 3M
6 Months: 2.4M
Delta: -1.4M
ROI: -36.8%
Notes:

Dullahan's Edge
Cost: 3M
3 Months 2.7M
6 Months: 3M
Delta: +-0
ROI: 0
Notes:

Golden Dragon
Cost: 150k
3 Months: 110k
6 Months: 170k
Delta: +20k
ROI: 13%
Notes: Had been around 100k until sometime in the last week when the price appears to have been manipulated.

Ashen
Cost: 9M
3 Months: 5.6M
6 Months: 6.3M
Delta: -2.7M
ROI: -30%
Notes: The original (and similar-looking) Pale Marionette went from 14M to 8M during the sale and has since dropped to 7M. To illustrate that 'rarity' is the reason behind absurdly high prices. Reached an all-time low of 5.2M in early May but has gone up steadily since then. Pale also reached a possible all-time low of 6.1M at that same time. No obvious cause.

Ultra Satan
Cost: 8.5M
3 Months: 4.5M
6 Months: 2.7M
Delta: -5.8M
ROI: -68.2%
Notes: Subsequent releases of other Ultra Satan items do not seem to have impacted the price of the original. Easter event including Ultra Satan did not impact price.

SDPlus Gold Blind Box
Cost: 7.5M
3 Months: 7.8M
6 Months: 9.15M
Delta: +1.65M
ROI: 22%
Notes: Sellability is incredibly low. Very few units have sold since the sale.

Bitter Bundle
Cost: 650k
Sinuous Ink: 180k
Aamira the Wanderer: 125k
Berry Mousse Royale: 80k
Item Worth: 385k
3 Months: 650k
Sinuous Ink: 200k
Aamira the Wanderer: 175k
Berry Mousse Royale: 80k
Item Worth: 455k
6 Months: 650k
Sinuous Ink: 230k
Aamira the Wanderer: 255k
Berry Mousse Royale: 95k
Item Worth: 580k
Delta: 0
ROI: Stagnant
Notes: You would have been better off hoarding the bundle items than the Bundle itself unless you somehow scored it at the item cost (unlikely). Insufficient units to generate a graph have sold in the last month and since the sale. 50% return on just the items in six months.
Aamira the Serene: No sales. Marketplace average is at 8.45M. Does not seem to have impacted bundle hoardability.

Sour Bundle
Cost: 650k
Stubborn Cryptodira: 190k
Glittering Carouser: 150k
Kiwi Chocolate Creme: 40k
Item Cost: 380k
3 Months: 1.3M
Stubborn Cryptodira: 190k
Glittering Carouser: 210k
Kiwi Chocolate Creme: 40k
Item Cost: 440k
6 Months: 1.4M
Stubborn Cryptodira: 200k
Glittering Carouser: 94k
Kiwi Chocolate Creme: 56k
Item Cost: 350k
Delta: +750k
ROI: 115%
Notes: Price has gone up substantially but that seems more likely the result of AI than hoardability given the price of the items it is guaranteed to contain and the low price of the 'rare' recolor. Insufficient units to generate a graph have sold in the last month and since the sale.
Mellow Cryptodira: No sales. Marketplace average of 1.3M.

Spicy Bundle
Cost: 650k
Kiken Rider: 200k
Favored Heiress: 100k
Little Pink Derby Devil: 90k
Item Cost: 390k
3 Months: 750k
Kiken Rider: 260k
Favored Heiress: 110k
Little Pink Derby Devil: 100k
Item Cost: 470k
6 Months: 750k
Kiken Rider: 280k
Favored Heiress: 90k
Little Pink Derby Devil: 115k
Item Cost: 485k
Delta: +100k
ROI: 15%
Notes: Hoarding the items would have netted a 24% return on investment. Insufficient units to generate a graph have sold in the last month and since the sale.
Anzen Rider: No sales to speak over. Average MP price is at 8.9M. Does not seem to have impacted bundle price.

Savory Bundle
Cost: 650k
Tamer of Blue Flames: 80k
Sweetheart Sweeper: 50k
Enchanted Meadows: 40k
Item Cost: 170k
3 Months: 930k
Tamer of Blue Flames: 115k
Sweetheart Sweeper: 100k
Enchanted Meadows: 40k
Item Cost: 255k
6 Months: 950k
Tamer of Blue Flames: 125k
Sweetheart Sweeper: 130k
Enchanted Meadows: 55k
Item Cost:
Delta: 300k
ROI: 46%
Notes: By hoarding the items you would have made a 82% return. Four units of this item have sold in the last month.
Cruel Cleaner: No sales. No average price. Seems to have had no impact on the bundle price.

Sweet Bundle
Cost: 700k
Dainty Damsel: 200k
Wintry Kisses: 200k
Island Sherbert: 100k
Item Cost: 500k
3 Months: 1.7M
Dainty Damsel: 280k
Wintry Kisses: 145k
Island Sherbert: 190k
Item Cost: 615k
6 Months: 1.7M
Dainty Damsel: 220k
Wintry Kisses: 130k
Island Sherbert: 155k
Item Cost: 505k
Delta: 1M
ROI: 143%
Notes: Minty Kisses may have impacted bundle price but initial manipulation has been a significant factor. Insufficient units to generate a graph have sold in the last month and since the sale.
Minty Kisses: No sales. Average and LMP at 9.25M. May have impacted the price of the bundle but initial manipulation has been a significant factor.

Creamy Bundle
Cost: 700k
Fanciful Light Charmer: 200k
Sigrdrifa's Prayer: 100k
Fay Cervidae: 100k
Item Cost: 500k
3 Months: 1.25M
Fanciful Light Charmer: 320k
Sigrdrifa's Prayer: 120k
Fay Cervidae: 115k
Item Cost: 555k
6 Months: 1.95M
Fanciful Light Charmer: 240k
Sigrdrifa's Prayer: 140k
Fay Cervidae: 115k
Item Cost: 495k
Delta: 1.25M
ROI: 178%
Notes: Apparent AI of the recolor may have impacted the price of the bundle but considering the very high LMP prices in the days following the end of the sale this may also be due to manipulation of the bundle itself. Eight units of this item have sold in the last month.
Blushing Light Charmer: Has had MP sales from 5M to 20M in the month of December. MP graph has been glitched since December. No recorded Exchange sales since December. Recent sellers have gotten offers in the 10-20M range. There is one listed in the MP at 350M. Apparent AI facilitated by the graph glitch of this item seems to have impacted the price of the bundle.